Champions League 2024-25: Aston Villa and the other underdogs who could emulate Dortmund’s run to the final

If you can sit there and say that you predicted Borussia Dortmund would reach the UEFA Champions League final last season before the ball was even kicked, then you are either a) a huge Borussia Dortmund fan or b) a liar.

Dortmund’s run was, of course, partly down to the way the draw opened up favourably for the Bundeliga side, but also to the fact that the club managed to catch lightning in a bottle and pull off a major upset.

The top eight teams in the new 36-team league will automatically advance to the knockout rounds, while teams finishing between 9th and 24th in this new league format will also have the chance to advance to the knockout rounds via the play-offs.

With computer models predicting that just eight points from eight games will be needed to have a chance of finishing in the top 24, it means that plenty of teams will be eager to emulate Dortmund.

But who are these teams? Let’s analyze the competitors.

League stage games: Young Boys (F), Bayern Munich (C), Bologna (C), Club Brugge (F), Juventus (C), RB Leipzig (F), AS Monaco (F), Celtic (C)

Aston Villa were the real surprise package in the Premier League last season, storming their way to the Champions League under Unai Emery and reaffirming the belief held by many that England’s Big Six could soon become more of a Seven or even an Eight.

This is the first time Villa have been back in Europe’s top competition in over 40 years, and you can be sure their fans will want to make Villa Park an absolute fortress for those special European nights. What’s more, it’s been another strong window for the Villains with the likes of Amadou Onana and Ian Maatsen leading another busy recruitment period.

There’s no denying that the gaming computer has been kind to Villa. They’ve come up against a Bayern Munich side in transition and a Juventus side still in the early stages of their rebuild, as well as a Bologna side that was decimated over the summer. Celtic at home rather than at Celtic Park is good news, and the toughest task looks to be away to Leipzig. Eight points? That should be possible, so anything is possible with European qualifier Unai Emery in charge.

League stage games: Arsenal (C), Shakhtar (F), Celtic (C), Stuttgart (F), Young Boys (F), Real Madrid (C), Sturm Graz (C), Barcelona (F)

It was swept aside a little bit – perhaps because it was the Europa League or perhaps because it was Atalanta – but what Gian Piero Gasperini’s side achieved in Europe last season was nothing short of remarkable. To win a European competition for this team is incredible, to do so by defeating a relentless juggernaut in Bayer Leverkusen in the final, inflicting their only defeat of the season, no less, is absolutely historic.

Losing Teun Koopmeiners to Juventus is a massive blow, there’s no getting around it. Gianluca Scamacca’s devastating injury is also a massive blow to the club. However, keeping Ademola Lookman, signing Charles De Ketelaere permanently and bringing in Mateo Retegui and Raoul Bellanova is just another incredibly smart move from the Bergamo club. Facing Spain’s big two, as well as Arsenal, is a tough draw, but there’s more than enough to make Gasperini confident of making the play-offs.

League Stage Games: Slovan Bratislava (H), Borussia Dortmund (A), Atalanta (A), RB Leipzig (H), Club Brugge (H), GNK Dinamo (A), Young Boys (H), Aston Villa (A)

Celtic have to be absolutely thrilled with this draw. There are plenty of tough games in there, of course, but in terms of making the play-offs, this is as good as Celtic could have hoped for. Dortmund, Atalanta and Villa are tough away trips and Leipzig won’t be easy, but there is a real chance for Brendan Rodgers’ side.

And they need to do something…

They have won three league titles in a row to re-establish themselves over arch-rivals Rangers at home, but in Europe they have been pretty poor of late. They have finished bottom of their group in each of the last two seasons. While the previous year, in the Europa League, they actually finished third and dropped down to the Conference League. And that was after losing in the qualifying rounds of the Champions League – a fate that has befallen them in each of the previous three years. Much of the 2000s and 2010s was marked by Celtic and Rangers causing absolute carnage in the group stages on a regular basis. This is a great opportunity for Celtic to once again be a serious and proper threat at this level.

League stage games: Juventus (F), Sporting CP (C), PSG (F), Shakhtar (C), Brest (F), Crvena Zvezda (F), Liverpool (C).

Do you know how many Eredivisie games PSV have lost since January 2023? Two. Just two. Out of 55 games.

The level of dominance under Peter Bosz is remarkable and this season he really hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down. PSV are relentless and an absolute nightmare to play against, often bullying teams into submission with their aggression. Keeping rising star Johan Bakayoko is a huge statement of intent and last season’s squad is still largely intact.

Going to Serbia will, of course, be tricky, but there are still plenty of winnable games. Also, notably, they could be facing a Liverpool side with little to play for in that final home game in front of a packed Eindhoven stadium.

League stage games: Atlético Madrid (F), Juventus (C), Liverpool (C), Celtic (F), Inter (F), Aston Villa (C), Sporting CP (C), Sturm Graz (F)

Make no mistake, this is an absolutely brutal fixture list for RB Leipzig. So much so that we actually considered putting Stuttgart here as Bundesliga representatives, given that Bayer Leverkusen can no longer be on any list of potential surprise packages.

But watching Leipzig end Leverkusen’s domestic unbeaten run in the game before the international break makes you think Marco Rose’s side could actually be what next team to make a run. Sure, they’ve done something similar in the past, but it seemed like in recent seasons the project in Leipzig had taken a step back. That’s no longer the case under local lad Rose.

Leipzig have had arguably the best transfer window of any major European club, being able to bring back Xavi Simons and retain all their stars except Dani Olmo, whose injuries have meant he has not been a vital player despite his huge transfer fee. There is a sense of continuity here, and despite the tough fixture list, they should be able to make it into the top 24.

League stage games: Lille (C), PSV (F), Sturm Graz (F), Manchester City (C), Arsenal (C), Club Brugge (F), RB Leipzig (F), Bologna (C)

This is also a really tough fixture list for Sporting, but at least they have the two big Premier League giants at home. This could be a huge season for Sporting striker Viktor Gyokeres, an outside bet for the Golden Boot, and you could say the same for manager Ruben Amorim.

Everyone knows about Amorim at this stage and what he has achieved, with his name reportedly being touted as one of the final candidates for the Liverpool job to replace Jurgen Klopp. It seems that Sporting are prepared to really make a run at him similar to the kind we have seen from Porto and Benfica in the past.

Sure, they continue to lose players every year, with Sporting’s financial situation meaning that will always be the case. But the difference these days is that, under sporting director Hugo Viana (yes, that Hugo Viana), recruitment is so, so smart.