Lebanon fears a repeat of past Israeli invasions

Looming over all this for Charbel – as well as the relatively small contingent of Israeli critics of the escalation with Hezbollah – is the fear that history will repeat itself. The Israeli invasions, both in 1982 and 2006, became more expansive and deadly than they had initially been conceived.

These fears are not unfounded, Michael A. Horowitz, a geopolitical and security analyst who serves as head of intelligence at the consultancy Le Beck, told NBC News in an email Tuesday morning.

“These concerns are valid, because even if Israel pursues a limited operation, it could easily be drawn in further, either due to military… or political factors, if hawks within the government push to expand the objective of the operation,” he said .

Fawaz A. Gerges, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, said he feared Israel’s military was “trying to soften Hezbollah’s defenses” and probing its weaknesses with initial strikes before a potential larger incursion.

‘Strategic failure’

Israel’s ground operation was met with a new wave of international concern and condemnation.

The United States has expressed support for a limited Israeli operation, but a National Security Council spokesman warned of the risk of “mission escalation.” In fact, Israel was planning a larger invasion but decided to pull back after Washington’s request, an administration official and US officials said. But the Biden administration remains concerned about the possibility of expanding the mission, the administration official said.

It’s happened before.

In 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon while the country was in the grip of a civil war, marking the beginning of what would become a nearly two-decade occupation.

The offensive initially targeted agents of the Palestine Liberation Organization, which was formed in 1964 in the Egyptian capital, Cairo, shortly after “Nakba,” which means “catastrophe” in Arabic and refers to the forced removal of about 750 thousand Palestinians in the region. their homes in preparation for the founding of Israel in 1948. Many sought refuge in Lebanon.

Thousands of Israeli soldiers and tanks crossed the border, culminating in a deadly siege of the Lebanese capital, Beirut. A massacre in the city’s Shatila refugee camp and the neighboring Sabra neighborhood saw hundreds of Palestinians and some Lebanese citizens killed over days by commandos from the Israeli-backed Lebanese Christian militia.